The Breath project (Project Number: 2022-1-PL01-KA220-HED-000089283) has been Co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author or authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Foundation for the Development of the Education System. Neither the European Union nor the entity providing the grant can be held responsible for them.

Mortality rates for chronic lower respiratory diseases in Italy from 1979 to 2010: an age–period–cohort analysis

Giancarlo Pesce

Thematic Area
Epidemiology, Patients’ perspective
Summary

ABSTRACT Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The objectives of this study were to estimate the trends in CLRD mortality in Italy, and the specific contributions of age, time period and birth cohort in driving these trends.
Population and cause-of-death data in Italy between 1979 and 2010 were collected from the World Health Organization website. Age-specific mortality rates for CLRDs, and effects for age, time period and birth cohort on mortality trends were estimated using age–period–cohort models.
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic bronchitis represent nearly 98% of the deaths from CLRDs. Despite the overall number of deaths have been stable (in men) or increasing (in women), the age-standardised rates have been steadily decreasing from 1979 to 2010, passing from 104.3 to 55.4 per 100 000 person-years in men and from 32.2 to 19.6 per 100 000 person-years in women. The average relative annual decrease was −3.6% in men and −2.7% in women. Since the end of the 1990s, the decreasing trend of CLRD mortality has started to level off, in particular in women. The decrease in CLRD mortality rates has been more accentuated in more recent cohorts and in younger age groups.
Both birth cohort and time period significantly affected the CLRD mortality rates, suggesting that changes in the spread of risk factors (smoking habits, early-life and occupational exposures) across different birth cohorts, as well as in advanced in healthcare and medical practice, may have played a major role in secular changes in COPD mortality rates in Italy.
Relevance
The study of the temporal trends of CLRD mortality, and of how they relate to time period, birth cohort and age of the subjects, may help to better understand the aetiology of the disease, and to address clinical and public health strategies. In this work, the trends in CLRD mortality between 1979 and 2010 in Italy were estimated, analysing the specific contributions of age, period and cohort in driving these trends.
DOI
DOI: 10.1183/23120541.00093-2015
Keywords